A couple of weeks ago, just after Doha and Dubai on the women’s side had finished, I was recording my podcast (no self-respecting woman should ever say these words) with my podcast-partner Boris Becker (every self-respecting woman should say these words) when right off the bat he came in hot with a side dish of reproach: Andrea, where have all the seeds gone?
It was a good question. Even though the winners in the end (Amanda Anisimova and Mirra Andreeva) were well-deserving and in their surprise triumph at a WTA 1000 event not surprising at all if you follow tennis closely, the question was fair as most of the seeds had struggled. How quickly the tides change!
A few weeks have passed, we have somehow found yet another desert to play tennis in, and now it’s the seeds on the men’s side who tripped and fell and tumbled away like tumbleweed in the desert wind. First seed: Out. Third seed: Out. Fourth seed: Out. Out, out, out. Everyone out. There were more dead men walking at Indian Wells than that kid saw in The Sixth Sense. There’s nothing to worry about. We still have Carlos *saving tennis yet again* Alcaraz and Jack *jawline* Draper.
On paper it looks like the women’s draws in the Middle East and the men’s draw in Indian Wells just fell apart. That’s what happens sometimes in tennis, that’s why we like it. I do think there are two different reasons to a similar outcome.
On the women’s side, while technically all three tournaments of Indian Wells, Doha and Dubai are WTA 1000s players would always choose to win Indian Wells if they could. It’s the same amount of points but it has this intangible thing. Some call it prestige, others call it rizz, either way it generates more attention and feels more important. The WTA’s intention of increasing prize money and importance for tournaments such as Doha and Dubai is admirable but players won’t be able to show up emotionally for a highlight every single week. As we saw happening in the Middle East. There is a limited capacity in human beings for emotional highlights even if they happen to be the best athletes in the world. The World Cup in soccer happens every 4 years, the Olympic Games happen every 4 years. Getting married, 4 times a lifetime tops. Tennis is already different in regards to 4 huge events in a single year, piling on more will water the tour and its most important weeks down. And eventually will have seeds toppling who by the nature of things win more matches than others and need time to recharge their emotional batteries.
These kind of things are always easier said than done. There are many interests at play, tournaments who want the prestige Indian Wells currently holds, who want the top players in their draws and who have the money to finance it all. In the end, the WTA (as is the ATP) is an economic endeavour and they have to make decisions based on revenue. This is not a suggestion for an overhaul of the tour, it’s just an explanation of why the top players who played well in Australia weren’t able to triumph in the Middle East and are now playing well again in Indian Wells.
On the men’s side, it’s a different story. The ATP doesn’t have an ATP Masters 1000 scheduled between the Australian Open and Indian Wells. There are many tournaments scattered all over the world and players can decide where and what category they want to play if they want to play at all. So, there must be a different explanation for what has been happening in Indian Wells. My theory is that we are in the midst of a generational turnover on the ATP. We have had the same thing happen on the WTA tour 6 or 7 years ago. When Serena Williams, Angie Kerber, Maria Sharapova, Caroline Wozniacki, Simona Halep, players who had been fixtures on tour for a long time, suddenly were old (in tennis terms only of course). They either retired or were about to retire or took a break or were not as dominant as they once were. And players like Naomi Osaka, Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek were too young (mere teenagers) to play the level we knew they will soon have week in week out. I always take Ash Barty out of these calculations just because she chose such a unique way for her own career and we applaud her for it.
We have a generational change on the ATP tour. Now that Jannik Sinner is gone we see the full effects. Roger - retired. Rafa - retired. Novak - old (again: tennis terms only). And if we take Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz out (who - like Ash Barty in a way - have their own unique paths), we have Ben Shelton, Jack Draper, Arthur Fils and Joao Fonseca. They are already playing astonishing tennis but they will need some time to become fixtures on tour the way the players before them were. Fixtures that rarely lose in the first week of a big event or only lose to each other. And that’s when we have what we want and need in tennis: rivalries. If you haven’t read my piece on rivalries yet, find it here: Have a friend? Try having a rival.
I’m never worried. I’m here for the game and the game will always outlast its names. I also know that a generational change happens exactly once a generation (LOL). We can sit this one out.
Oh, and by the way: Are you seeing how terrible the conditions have been in Indian Wells? I hate to say I told you so but boy, did I tell you so. The Serbian part of me that still believes in witchcraft is 99% convinced it was my doing. I take zero responsibility.
Things that make me happy:
I went to see A Streetcar Named Desire in the BAM theatre in Brooklyn with Paul Mescal yesterday. Paul Mescal was great and I was very impressed with his physical abilities. There is a point in the play when he does a bear crawl with his knees just above the floor for a very long time and the residue of athlete in me yelled BRAVO. But it’s really the women who dazzle. Patsy Ferran who plays Blanche DuBois gives a stunning performance that will have you at the edge of your seat the entire time and not only that: She also comes back two hours later and does it again as I was there for the matinee and there was another show at 7pm. Maybe it is possible to go through emotional highlights 8 times a week. You just have to be one of the best theatre actresses in the world. Easy, right?
Things that make unhappy:
Now, I know Law and Order makes a lot of people very happy and I’m happy for whomever this show makes happy. But do they really have to film on my block every week? Because, let me tell you one thing, there’s neither law nor order in my neighbourhood when they’re around.
Hope this finds you well and hopeful that spring is just around the corner. I will report back next week from the center of spring break itself: Miami. What did you think of my theory and the generational change on the ATP side? Did I miss something? Eager to hear what you think and to see you all digitally again next week. May at least one flower blossom soon!
Yours truly, Andrea
Ah yes. One. I would also like you to get a cameo on law and order! That would be great.
Two. I really just wanted to let you know that I look forward to your newsletter more than anything else tennis related in the world. (Except the tennis) !
Well written. Entertaining. Funny. With a drop of something other than tennis in there.
THANK YOU. can’t wait for a whole book one day !!!!
If Law and Order are filming on your block every week disrupting the sanctity of what I am sure is normally a perfectly orderly non-chaotic New York City block, it would be perfectly reasonable to ask the producer for a cameo when a suitable tennis related storyline so arises. I submit, this may sound far fetched - but I kindly point you in the direction of Episode 21 of Season 4 from 1994 "Doubles" synopsis below:
"The "Law & Order" episode "Doubles" (Season 4, Episode 21) involves detectives investigating a mysterious wrist injury to a young tennis star, Korey Burke, potentially linked to a rival player, Allison Hall, and her father, who may have wanted to find a way for Korey to keep her sponsorships without playing"