Wimbledon I

Potential pitfalls

The third Grand Slam tournament of the year is about to get underway. And it’s not just any major, no, it’s the most prestigious of all. It’s the one everyone wants. We are in England which is outside the EU, and for the fortnight to come, I’ll be constantly begging your pardon. For the millionth time, I’ll try to add milk to my tea and for the millionth time I will hate it. Some learn, others try. I try and never learn.

While I ponder over milk in tea, sneeze from the freshly cut grass in the air and try my hardest not to mention strawberries and cream, players are getting ready to snatch the most important trophy of all and maybe marry a royal while they’re at it. The draw is made, the fate is set. I have gone through it all and have spotted potential pitfalls. Places in the draw where opportunities could open up, sections where things could become uncertain.

To be clear, a possible upset is still only that: possible. I, for the most part, think that the favourites are still the favourites and often times overcoming an uncomfortable opponent in the early rounds can build resilience and steadfastness for what’s to come in week 2. So before somebody goes ahead and yells ANDREA PETKOVIC PREDICTS XYZ WILL FALL IN ROUND 1 - calm down. I’m merely pointing out difficult paths for some of the stars.

Let’s go.

your controversial wimbledon correspondent

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In the top half of the women’s draw 3 very good grass court players have been flushed into the same section. There is Emma Raducanu who people forget made Wimbledon’s round of 16 before going on to win the US Open 2021, Marketa Vondrousova who won the Berlin Tennis Open and McCartney Kessler who just won Nottingham. One of these players will meet the world number one Aryna Sabalenka in the third round. They will beat each other before they meet Aryna. I think that Raducanu will have problems in the first round against 17-year-old Mingge Xu. Emma prefers to step on the court as the underdog but if she overcomes Xu she will be dangerous from thereon. Can she beat Vondrousova if Vondrousova beats Kessler (you see, very tricky part of the draw)? Aryna certainly will hope so. I don’t believe she wants to see Marketa in round 3. Too many slices and dices, chopped salads and purees for Aryna’s taste. That’s how Vondrousova got Sabalenka in Berlin. This could be a momentum building moment for the world number 1 that might win it all if she survives this section.

Similar to her compatriot Emma Raducanu, Katie Boulter prefers to function as the underdog. She also likes playing in front of a home crowd and she likes playing on grass. All these things combined will make things very tricky for Paula Badosa who drew Katie in the first round. Paula won the only match they played but it was a tight three-setter at last year’s Roland Garros, a surface that generally favours Badosa. This is one of the first-round women’s matches to watch.

Another possible stumble for a high seed could be Jasmine Paolini in round 3. She might have to face Linda Noskova whose game was virtually made for grass. Big, flat groundstrokes, fantastic serve. And she’s in form. Linda is still young which means she doesn’t have much experience in majors yet and that might prevent her from even getting into the third round. But if Noskova wins her first couple of matches, she will be dangerous for Jasmine. I still think Paolini is the favourite to win this match and I’m sorry I have to repeat this simple concept that having a dangerous draw does not mean top seeds will automatically lose. During Grand Slam tournaments I get readers who are not weekly subscribers to Finite Jest and they tend to miss some of the subtleties so I’d rather reiterate. But there is some danger in this section and it could lead to a surprise semifinalist.

In the very bottom of the top half is 5th seed Qinwen Zheng who found some rhythm on grass in Queens but Qinwen’s game still struggles when it comes to lawn tennis. An extreme grip on the forehand, the preference to build the point from a few more feet behind the baseline are all aspects of her tennis that have made it difficult for Zheng to play her best on grass so far. She is too good of a player to not figure it out at one point but she does have a tough first round in Katerina Sinaikova who on the other hand adores lawn tennis. Will this be the year where Qinwen finds her game on grass? Time will tell. Naomi Osaka is in this section as well (and Amanda Anisimova!) and there are opportunities to be taken here if you can avoid slippage on slippery meadows.

The bottom half of the draw is a bit more straight-forward with fewer pitfalls for high seeds with the exception of Coco Gauff who’s gotten a complicated draw. The world number 1 and 2 have been dealt a difficult hand or if you want to put it positively have chances to grow. Coco got Dayana Yastremska in the first round and could meet Sofia Kenin in the third. Re-surging Sofia has beaten Coco at Wimbledon before and Dayana is the type of player nobody wants to see near them when she’s playing well. Due to her great success at the French Open Coco hasn’t played many grass court matches and we’ll see how quickly she can adjust.

Other than that, I do think most of the higher seeds will go through in this half. The two matches to keep an eye on, however, are title defender Barbora Krejcikova who drew Alexandra Eala in the first round and Liudmila Samsonova who got incredibly talented Maya Joint. Samsonova is a player to avoid on grass at all costs but everyone is nervous in their first match so it will be interesting to see how she fares against young Maya.

Now to who I think will win Wimbledon for completely irrational reasons. During 2 matches in Bad Homburg, a falcon or a hawk or an eagle (I’m clearly not an ornithologist) was circling above Iga Swiatek’s head for minutes at end. Those who have followed me for awhile know that my toxic trait is that I believe in witchcraft and superstitions. I believe that the falcon, let’s say it was a falcon, was a sign that Iga will win Wimbledon. I actually also thought she played great in Bad Homburg so it’s not only the falcon. But the falcon definitely helps.

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On to the men. As with the women, the top half of the draw seems to be a lot more daunting. The world number one Jannik Sinner did not have a lucky hand when it comes to his section of the draw. There is a potential third round clash with Denis Shapovalov which is difficult enough on grass but then there’s Ben Shelton and Lorenzo Musetti and if he gets through all of that Novak Djokovic might be waiting as a reward in the semifinal. Of course, these players need to get through their rounds first. The reason I don’t see as much havoc happening on the men’s side as often times occurs on the women’s side at Wimbledon is the best-of-5 format. For the women, a bad start on hard courts or clay is difficult to overcome in the beginning stages of a major tournament, a bad start on grass, however, will have you slipping and sliding and falling and probably crying by the time you’re down a set and a break. The best-of-5 format gives respite from an immediate panic mode on days when you’ve forgotten your first serve in the locker room.

The nation’s most famous chin Jack Draper has somehow been mixed into all of this and the British God must’ve looked the other way when the draw was being drawn like one of your French girls. Not only does he have the only-remaining grass court specialist (remember, chaos is the key!) Alexander Bublik as a possible third round encounter, he has also been pulled into Novak Djokovic’s section who - for me - is the second biggest favourite to win the title. Novak functions under pressure and knows Center Court better than any other active player. He has that firmness in his eyes again that I’ve known for a long time and that is always a dead give-away of where his ambitions lie: In winning.

Carlos Alcaraz, all the way in the bottom on the other end of the draw, is probably the number one favourite as the title defender and logical clay court and grass court specialist in one (seriously, how does he do it? Talent helps I guess). His first test might be big serving Felix Auger-Aliassime in round 3 who will try to throw Carlos off with net approaches and similar shenanigans but in reality the most dangerous opponent in that bottom half to Carlos is Carlos himself. He seems to have put inconsistencies behind him but it is still Carlos. He picks friction and nerves and 5th set tie breaks to show his best tennis over smooth sailing any day of the week. It’s just how he rolls.

Another high seed who was not graced by luck was number 3 in the world Alexander Zverev. If he survives Arthur Rinderknech, who can kill a small animal with his forehand when it’s on but unfortunately when it’s off the only thing he kills is birds circling the stadium, Zverev might face Matteo Berrettini in the third round, Francisco Cerundolo who he is 0:3 against in the fourth round and Taylor Fritz who’s beaten him the last 5 times they played in the quarters. There are yet some demons to expiate for the German. Often times, the draws give you the same kind of challenges over and over again until you find a way to overcome them and only then will they dissipate.

Many words to merely say: This might become an epic Wimbledon. Epic, a word more overused than mentioning strawberries and cream when you talk about Wimbledon, but on both sides, this draw has fallen into the most exciting roster we have seen in years. Let’s hope the draw is not a teenager who spites us just because it can.

Things that make me happy:

I know this is déjà vu for some of you but I re-watched La Grande Bellezza yet again! This makes the third time this year alone that I have watched this beautiful, beautiful movie. You may say I’m boring and unoriginal and you would be a 100% right about that but watching La Grande Bellezza 5 times a year is the least boring thing about me. I promise.

Things that make me unhappy:

I’ve landed in London and somehow have also landed in the junior’s hotel. If I wanted questionable courtship behaviour I’d download Tinder. But jokes aside, seeing teenagers around and up close just makes me uneasy because I remember how hard it was to be a teenager. Turning 30 was the best day of my life. I said what I said.

THE DISTRACTION!

The end of this piece took 30 minutes because my good friend Rennae Stubbs is sitting beside me and yelling. This was a concentration test. Blame her for any errors. I truly hope this Wimbledon will be as exciting as the draw promises! Please eat STRAWBERRIES AND CREAM. There I did it. I used a cliché. Shame on me.

Yours truly, Andrea